Industry stress
Who buys Indian oil and gas
Ten consuming industries. Stress label, key driver, and feedstock exposure for each. Editorial baselines; updates when data warrants.
Stress distribution
High
0
industries
Stressed
1
industry
Watch
5
industries
Calm
4
industries
Feedstock cross-impact
Products that feed two or more industries - a price move in these affects multiple sectors simultaneously.
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Stress
Feedstock
Singapore GRM at $3.8/bbl; diesel crack below $15
Refining: GRM compressed at $3.8/bbl; diesel crack weak.
Stress drivers
- Singapore GRM below $4/bbl
- Brent-Dubai spread widening above $3/bbl
- Diesel crack below $15/bbl
- Naphtha crack softening on Chinese oversupply
- Crude throughput capacity constraint at any major refinery
Feedstocks
CrudeATF at ₹97,475/kL; airline cost pressure into summer peak
Aviation: ATF near peak; airfare pressure into Q1 travel season.
Stress drivers
- ATF price above ₹1,00,000/kL
- ATF share of operating cost above 45%
- International crude spike driving OMC revisions
- IATA hedging programme lags spot by 4-8 weeks
- Airfare yield compression in competitive routes
Feedstocks
ATFLNG import cost above $13.5/MMBtu; urea margin thin
Fertiliser: LNG feedstock cost elevated; subsidy watch.
Stress drivers
- Natural gas price above $3/MMBtu
- LNG import cost exceeding $14/MMBtu
- Naphtha price rise above ₹68,000/MT
- Subsidy disbursement lag from DoF
- Ammonia spot price elevation
Naphtha +4% MoM; China oversupply capping domestic margins
Petrochem: naphtha spread narrow; China pressure ongoing.
Stress drivers
- Naphtha crack margin compression below $80/MT
- China petrochem oversupply dampening margins
- Ethylene and propylene spread collapse
- Natural gas price spike above $3/MMBtu
- Downstream polymer demand slowdown
Hormuz route watch; VLSFO premium elevated at $140/MT
Shipping: Hormuz watch; bunker premium holding above $140.
Stress drivers
- Bunker fuel price above $500/MT
- IMO 2020 VLSFO premium over HSFO above $150/MT
- Hormuz and Red Sea route diversions adding voyage days
- Cabotage law limiting coastal shipping margins
- Port congestion at JNPA and Mundra
LPG at ₹903; subsidy headroom thinning ahead of festive season
Household: LPG ₹903; subsidy headroom watch into festive quarter.
Stress drivers
- LPG cylinder above ₹950 straining household budget
- Petrol above ₹100/L reducing two-wheeler usage
- Subsidy removal from 'affluent' LPG consumers
- City gas distribution not reaching semi-urban areas
- Kerosene PDS phase-out before LPG saturation
Gas supply adequate; furnace oil demand low as substitution continues
Manufacturing: energy cost stable; gas supply adequate.
Stress drivers
- Natural gas price above $3/MMBtu raising boiler and CHP cost
- Furnace oil above ₹42,000/MT increasing heavy industry fuel bill
- Diesel genset cost rising during grid outages
- Energy cost share above 20% of COGS in energy-intensive sectors
- Gas supply curtailment to industrial consumers
Domestic gas allocation steady; renewables reducing merit-order share
Gas power: adequate allocation; renewables displacing marginal dispatch.
Stress drivers
- Domestic gas supply allocation below 75%
- LNG spot price above $14/MMBtu
- Gas plant load factor below 30%
- Coal shortage redirecting dispatch
- Renewable surplus displacing gas on the grid
Diesel stable; rabi harvest reducing tractor fuel demand
Agriculture: rabi harvest phase; diesel demand seasonally lower.
Stress drivers
- Diesel price above ₹90/L increasing irrigation pump cost
- LPG price rise affecting cold-chain running cost
- Urea subsidy cut raising input cost
- Power tariff hike for agricultural feeders
- Kharif sowing season concentrating demand
Diesel flat week-on-week; no OMC revision signalled
Road freight: diesel flat; no surcharge event this week.
Stress drivers
- Diesel above ₹90/L triggering freight surcharges
- Petrol above ₹98/L compressing two-wheeler disposable income
- Toll hike compounding operating cost pressure
- EV penetration in commercial three-wheelers
- State VAT revision widening inter-state price gap