Industry stress

Fertiliser

Watch

LNG import cost above $13.5/MMBtu; urea margin thin

editorial · as of 1 Apr 2026

Operator read

Fertiliser: LNG feedstock cost elevated; subsidy watch.

Gas-intensive sector; urea and complex fertiliser output depends on gas and naphtha feedstock costs. Government subsidy covers the gap between cost and MRP.

Stress level: Watch. Check feedstocks and drivers below.

Feedstock costs

Stress drivers

  • Natural gas price above $3/MMBtu
  • LNG import cost exceeding $14/MMBtu
  • Naphtha price rise above ₹68,000/MT
  • Subsidy disbursement lag from DoF
  • Ammonia spot price elevation

Why it matters

India produces 50+ mt of fertilisers annually but remains an importer of urea. Gas feedstock cost determines whether domestic urea production is viable or whether import-plus-subsidy is cheaper. Government subsidy covers the gap between MRP and production cost; at current gas prices, the annual fertiliser subsidy bill runs ₹1.7-2.0 lakh crore. Any shock to natural gas supply or price directly pressures the fiscal account.

Source

DoF fertiliser subsidy data + PPAC feedstock pricesupdated 1 Apr 2026refreshes every 1 dayseditorial baseline
editorial