Pricing model / Brent as input
Slide the horizon. Watch the Brent spread move.
The tool starts with the live Brent range, then widens or shifts the visual spread as the time horizon changes. The point is not fake precision; it is to make the price-risk band visible before India pricing, taxes, margins, and absorbers are discussed.
Signal
Strong
88/100 confidence
Forecast horizon
7days
Low
$103
Base
$109
High
$115
Downside edge
$103
-$8.3 vs spot
Base read
$109
Quantified news shock: bullish shock (+13)
Upside edge
$115
+$3.8 vs spot
Pricing pillar
Benchmark first; landed and administered prices next.
India product pricing
Product stacks: input, margin, duty, tax, absorber.
This sits below the Brent visual because India pricing is a chain: crude or gas input, FX, refinery transfer, dealer commission, central duties, state taxes, OMC smoothing, then customer price.
Petrol
official price waterfall
₹94.77/L
Delhi · 14 May 2026
Taxes and duties are 28.8% of the published Delhi petrol price.
Diesel
official price waterfall
₹87.67/L
Delhi · 14 May 2026
Taxes and duties are 23.2% of the published Delhi diesel price.
ATF
iocl-aviation-fuel
₹89,441/kL
Delhi aviation fuel · 1 Apr 2025
ATF reprices faster than retail fuels, so aviation sees crude and FX stress before households do.
LPG
iocl-petroleum-prices
₹1,762
19 kg commercial cylinder · Delhi
LPG belongs on Pricing because the consumer price can stay still while subsidy or OMC absorption moves.
Natural gas
fred-henry-hub
$2.82/MMBtu
Henry Hub proxy · 11 May 2026
Gas affects fertiliser, CGD, industry, power switching, and GAIL/PLL exposure more than pump prices.
Who absorbs it
One price shock, six different ledgers.
Customer
Sees pump, LPG, ATF, or gas tariff only after policy and company smoothing.
Government
Central excise, state VAT, subsidy headroom, inflation, and import-bill politics.
OMCs
Marketing margin compresses when crude rises and retail prices stay flat.
Refiners
Cracks, crude slate, Russian discounts, freight, and utilisation drive margin.
Upstream
ONGC and OIL generally benefit from higher crude/gas realisation.
Industries
Aviation, fertiliser, transport, petrochemicals, and power feel different lags.
Model lanes
Brent now. LPG and gas next.
Brent / crude
Live
Range, horizon slider, EIA, WTI, news shock, FX, India import bill.
LPG
Seeded
Commercial LPG prices are present; next step is Saudi CP/import-parity and subsidy/OMC absorption.
Natural gas
Seeded
Henry Hub and LNG/gas assets are present; next step is JKM, APM gas, regas, tariff, and fertiliser/CGD pass-through.