Historical explainer · 2025 policy narrative
The Russian crude trade — a historical policy narrative.
This historical narrative discusses the post-2022 trade shift. Its country-specific claims are not a current trade assessment; the PPAC figures below are regional, not Russia-only.
This policy narrative has not been revalidated as a current trade assessment.
Latest PPAC FYTD share · Eurasia
47.3%
FYTD Apr–Jul 2026
Middle East FYTD share
30.7%
Same regional report window
Pre-2022 Eurasia share
~2%
FY19-FY21 typical
Europe exits, the discount opens
Feb–May 2022
EU pledged to end Russian seaborne crude by Dec 2022. Up to 3.5 Mb/d of Urals went looking for a buyer. The Urals discount to Brent blew out from ~USD 2 to USD 30+ per barrel in Q2 2022.
Indian state and private refiners entered the spot market. By June 2022, Russia was already India's largest single supplier — an inversion that took 11 months to execute versus decades of Gulf dominance.
The USD 60 price cap and the shadow fleet
G7 cap effective 5 December 2022
Rupees, dirhams, yuan — not dollars
SWIFT detours
Discount x volume = benefit. Retail did not move.
Rs 35,000+ crore estimated savings FY24
What could unwind it
Watch January 2025 and onward
The structural question. India's energy security throughout the 2000s and 2010s was framed as Middle-East-dependence plus strategic reserves. The Russia pivot produced a second structural vector — but also introduced a new dependence on G7 policy. Both the old Hormuz chokepoint and the new shadow-fleet policy risk now sit on the energy security map. The ministry's 15-year plan explicitly names both.