Artefact · interactive
The Russia crude trade — 2% to 35% in three years.
The single largest shift in Indian oil since the 1991 reform of bulk imports. Russian crude was ~2% of India's imports through the 2010s. Post-February 2022, it became the single largest source. Five layers to understand why, how, and what could unwind it.
Europe exits, the discount opens
Feb–May 2022
EU pledged to end Russian seaborne crude by Dec 2022. Up to 3.5 Mb/d of Urals went looking for a buyer. The Urals discount to Brent blew out from ~USD 2 to USD 30+ per barrel in Q2 2022.
Indian state and private refiners entered the spot market. By June 2022, Russia was already India's largest single supplier — an inversion that took 11 months to execute versus decades of Gulf dominance.
The USD 60 price cap and the shadow fleet
G7 cap effective 5 December 2022
Rupees, dirhams, yuan — not dollars
SWIFT detours
Discount x volume = benefit. Retail did not move.
Rs 35,000+ crore estimated savings FY24
What could unwind it
Watch January 2025 and onward
The structural question.India's energy security throughout the 2000s and 2010s was framed as Middle-East-dependence plus strategic reserves. The Russia pivot produced a second structural vector — but also introduced a new dependence on G7 policy. Both the old Hormuz chokepoint and the new shadow-fleet policy risk now sit on the energy security map. The ministry's 15-year plan explicitly names both.